The Presidential Timeline - Part 2

first appeared in “From David’s Desk” on July 9, 2025

As noted in Part I of this edition, predicting the next president three-plus years ahead of the election is rarely successful, though it may be enjoyable.

But it is not as difficult to predict those who are likely to consider running or may actually run. For what it is worth, reflected below is the current “conventional wisdom” in Washington about the candidates likely to consider running for president in 2028. (It should be noted that the distinguished Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith once said that “conventional wisdom” is often wrong.)

Republicans

Assuming that President Trump does not change his mind and is not running in 2028 (through a potentially favorable interpretation by the Supreme Court of the 22nd Amendment), these seem to be the likely Republican candidates:

CORE MAGA LEADERS

Vice President J.D. Vance
At this point, assuming the president does not run, Vice President Vance has to be considered the early favorite to be the Republican nominee despite his relative youth. While Trump did not know Vance well before selecting him as his vice-presidential nominee, he has come to regard Vance as a loyal, eager, and articulate proponent of the Trump agenda. Also, when incumbent vice presidents seek the nomination of their party, despite the in-fighting that might occur, they often get the nomination—Nixon in 1960, Humphrey in 1968, H.W. Bush in 1988, and Gore in 2000. (It should be noted that only one of these vice presidents—H. W. Bush—immediately succeeded their president in the subsequent election.)

Another factor making Vance a strong potential nominee is that, as vice president, he would succeed to the office if the president were to die in office—which has happened eight times. Donald Trump will be in his eighties for part of his term. So, Vance could possibly be the incumbent president, with an obvious leg up then in being the 2028 nominee.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio
The secretary of state has probably the most visible position in the cabinet outside of the vice president—though no former secretary of state has become president immediately after serving as secretary since John Quincy Adams more than 200 years ago.

That said, Rubio ran for president in the 2016 primaries; he has a fundraising base, his tenure as secretary of state should increase his visibility and international credibility, he is fluent in Spanish, and he is certainly young for someone with so much government experience (Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives; US Senator; Secretary of State). And President Trump increasingly seems to like and respect Rubio, appointing him to more positions, such as acting archivist of the United States and National Security Advisor. While Rubio’s prior political positions on issues seem a bit at odds with Trump’s corresponding positions, Rubio’s recent loyalty could ease Trump’s willingness to consider Rubio as his successor.

Donald Trump Jr.
While he has no electoral or governmental experience (neither did his father before becoming president), Don Jr. clearly has the name and, some say, real interest, although he recently said publicly that he was not interested. He has been an effective surrogate for his father and is increasingly comfortable in a public role. He would also likely have his father’s support. But for this to occur, President Trump would need to be very popular over the next three years, and the other prospective top MAGA candidates (like Vance and Rubio) need to lose Trump’s support for whatever reason. A long shot, but long shots have been elected before.

Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum
The former Governor of North Dakota, and a highly successful businessman, Burgum now serves as secretary of the interior and chair of the president’s energy council. He was almost selected by Trump—at Rupert Murdoch’s strong recommendation—as his vice-presidential candidate. Neither the Department of the Interior nor North Dakota has ever served as a base for a successful presidential campaign, but Trump and the business community respect Burgum. He can easily self-fund a campaign, and is already familiar with the challenges of mounting a campaign, having run in the 2024 primaries before dropping out to endorse Trump.

NON-MAGA REPUBLICANS

If President Trump is not all that popular at the end of this term, and thus a strong Trump acolyte or MAGA supporter may not be the direction the party wants to pursue, there are other candidates who could emerge as possible nominees in that scenario:

Governor Ron DeSantis (Florida)
By 2028, DeSantis will be the former Governor of Florida but still seems to have the ambition to run for president (he will only turn 50 in 2028). DeSantis clearly had some appeal early in his 2024 presidential campaign and was the polling favorite early in the race. He had strong support among many business-oriented donors, who saw him as the best way to avoid a Trump redux. But seemingly running to the right of Trump did not work, and DeSantis learned early on that there can only be one MAGA star. If DeSantis runs again, he will likely not try to out-MAGA the Trump legacy and would almost certainly run as a more traditionally conservative Republican, hoping to get some MAGA support if Trump remains popular.

Governor Glenn Youngkin (Virginia)
The current Governor of Virginia (and former Co-CEO of Carlyle) will term out at the beginning of next year and will presumably look to find ways to stay politically visible and viable without being too closely tied to the MAGA part of the party. But, he will no doubt be respectful enough of MAGA and Trump so as not to alienate that constituency. Also, as a former Governor, he will have the freedom to travel the country and the world. It is likely he will be able to easily get funding for a PAC to further his visibility. To stay close to the MAGA part of the party, he could accept a part-time assignment leading a commission or study for President Trump without becoming a cabinet member or a full-time devotee.

Fmr. Ambassador Nikki Haley
The former Governor of South Carolina is less likely to try to run again, given the probable animosity with Donald Trump and the fact that she lost her home state in the 2024 primary. She was the last Republican standing against Trump in the 2024 primaries, and if Trump is, for whatever reason, out of the picture or not very popular, she might be able to garner enough interest for another long shot run. (It should be noted that the Republican Party has never nominated a female presidential candidate.)

VARIOUS BUSINESS LEADERS

Trump's example (and Burgum’s and Youngkin’s) of going from being a business leader to a governmental leader may well inspire others from the mainstream corporate or high-tech world to make an effort, on the theory that if Trump could pull it off, given all his challenges, so could they. Generally, tech leaders/founders are not known for their modesty and may well think they could do what Trump did. It is probably too difficult to mention specific names, but this category should certainly not be ruled out. However, Elon Musk’s eligibility can be ruled out; he is not a natural-born citizen of the United States, a constitutional requirement to be president.

VARIOUS SENATORS

The Senate always seems to produce some potential presidential candidates. It is often said that when a senator looks in the mirror, he (or she) invariably sees a future president.

Tom Cotton (Arkansas)
A Harvard-educated military veteran who is a strong defense proponent and a clear MAGA supporter and ally of President Trump. Cotton has made it clear to many that he is interested in running someday, and he brings strong national security credentials to any such effort.

Bill Hagerty (Tennessee)
A well-respected business entrepreneur and investor, Hagerty first gained government prominence as Ambassador to Japan in Trump's first term. He followed that tour of duty by being elected to the US Senate, where he has developed a pro-business reputation. Trump also did consider him as a possible secretary of state.

Josh Hawley (Missouri)
A very conservative two-term senator who has been a longtime MAGA supporter. To many, he is best known for having raised a clenched fist during the January 6th Capitol riot, and that clenched fist was apparently intended to show support for the protesters. Whether that clenched fist, plus a strong intellect, is enough to launch a successful presidential campaign is not yet known.

David McCormick (Pennsylvania)
A new senator who won the seat by defeating the longtime Democratic incumbent Bob Casey, Senator McCormick is not an avowed MAGA supporter, but he does have a good relationship with President Trump. His wife, Dina Powell, worked as a Deputy National Security Advisor in Trump's first term, and Trump endorsed McCormick in his recent Senate race. Although a new senator, McCormick has a wealth of government experience, having served as a military officer in Iraq and as Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs under George W. Bush, as well as private sector experience, most recently having served as CEO of Bridgewater, one of the world's largest hedge funds.

Is it smart to think about running for president in an election just four years after getting elected to the Senate? Traditionally, senators wait a bit longer, but then came Barack Obama, who was elected president after serving just four years of his first term in the US Senate—the same situation McCormick would face if he ran. And McCormick is from the ultimate “must win” swing state—Pennsylvania.

Rick Scott (Florida)
A former two-term governor and CEO of a very large healthcare company (HCA), he considered running in the Republican presidential primary in 2024 but ultimately endorsed Trump again. He has the wealth to provide a great deal of seed funding for a presidential campaign, but there may already be enough other Florida-based candidates in the race to make this candidacy unlikely.

Tim Scott (South Carolina)
Senator Scott ran for president in the Republican primaries in 2024 and managed to attract some real supporters in the business community with his rise from poverty before dropping out to support Trump. If he ran again, he would probably attract traditional Republican business supporters as well as some MAGA supporters. One earlier concern about his never having been married was addressed by his 2024 wedding, but the Republican party has never nominated an African American person for president.

Democrats

There will be no lack of Democratic competition for president. Assuming Trump is not somehow on the ballot, it is likely that the normal pattern will occur; the party out of power will have a slew of candidates when the party in power is not running an incumbent president.

THE MOST OBVIOUS CANDIDATE

Fmr. Vice President Kamala Harris
The former vice president is the most obvious potential Democratic candidate. But, she would have a tough time running in 2028 if she were to run for governor of California, which many expect her to do. If she ran for governor and lost, it would effectively bar another presidential campaign. However, it should be noted that Richard Nixon lost the presidential election in 1960 and the California gubernatorial campaign in 1962, and was still elected president in 1968, but that 1968 presidential election was six years after his gubernatorial loss.

If Harris were to run for governor in 2026, and won, she would no doubt be forced to commit, as part of a winning campaign, to not run for president just two years or so later. Violating that commitment would by itself probably be a bit of a death knell to a presidential candidacy. Vice President Harris has said she will not make a decision about California until the end of the summer.

If Vice President Harris were to opt to run for president (and not governor), she would probably have a good fundraising base from her 2024 campaign. That said, she would not have an easy path to the nomination. Many Democrats, rightly or wrongly, feel she did not run a strong campaign against Trump—even though she would have won the election had 230,000 voters across Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania voted differently. Despite the 2024 loss and the feeling among some party leaders that Harris could have won the election with a better campaign, she did put together a competitive presidential campaign in 107 days and raised over $1 billion for it. And, in the eyes of most observers, she won her debate with Trump.

If Harris does decide to forgo the gubernatorial campaign and to run for president, she will not lack for competitors. The nomination is certainly, in the view of Democratic political cognoscenti and major donors, not hers for the asking, and it has been more than a half-century since the Democratic Party nominated someone who lost the previous presidential election, that being Adlai Stevenson in 1956.

OTHER PROSPECTIVE CANDIDATES

Governor Andy Beshear (Kentucky)
Governor Beshear has gained a reasonable amount of attention for being elected governor in a deeply red state, and he is reportedly beginning to explore his prospects for securing the Democratic nomination. As governor, he has received a reasonable amount of support from independents and Republicans, and any campaign would be presumably based on his ability to bring disparate political groups together.

As a white Southerner, Beshear would no doubt try to bring back the white constituency to the Democratic Party in a presidential election. (No Democratic presidential candidate has won the majority of the white vote—58% of Americans are white—in a presidential general election since Lyndon Johnson did so in 1964, more than 60 years ago.)

Senator Cory Booker (New Jersey)
Senator Booker competed in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, but he did not really catch on and thus dropped out relatively early in the process. On paper, he would seem to have real appeal: Stanford football player, Rhodes Scholar, Yale Law School, Mayor of Newark, African American, and an effective spokesman for traditionally Democratic constituencies. Most recently, he garnered a good deal of attention for his one-man, 25-hour, record-setting Senate speech criticizing President Trump's policies (and has now written a book about this effort). Whether Senator Booker, knowing well the rigors of a national political campaign, wants to pursue that path again rather than trying to rise in influence in the Senate is unclear at this point.

Fmr. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg
The former mayor of South Bend, Indiana (Mayor Pete), Harvard graduate, Rhodes Scholar, and Afghan War veteran ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, and was widely thought to have positioned himself well, especially in the various debates. President Biden later selected him as Secretary of Transportation, and he held that position for the full four years of the Biden Administration. He is now a resident of Michigan and remains interested in Democratic politics, but he has not officially decided whether to seek his party's nomination, though he recently spoke to a political group in Iowa. One of the issues Secretary Buttigieg will face if he runs is whether the country is ready to elect a gay man as president. That issue did not seem to be a real problem for Buttigieg prior to the Democratic primaries, but a national election might be different.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York)
Since her election to the House of Representatives in 2018—defeating a prominent Democratic leader in her primary—Ocasio-Cortez (generally known as AOC) has attracted an enormous amount of public attention for her outspoken advocacy for causes and projects seen as progressive by the standards of traditional Democratic Party. And while her positions have not been able to attract the requisite support to get many of her views into law, AOC is playing a different game. She is clearly trying to attract attention in the hope that, down the road, she can change the Democratic party’s views. (She did have her preferred candidate recently win the Democratic primary for New York City’s mayoral election.)

While that has not yet happened, it is clear that AOC garners enormous press attention for her views and speeches. Most recently, on a speaking tour with Senator Bernie Sanders, with whom she shares many views, she gained enormous press attention. The chance that she could actually be the Democratic nominee still seems remote at this point.

But recently, AOC has seemingly been seriously considering a campaign for president, especially now that she is of age, 35, to be president.

Fmr. Ambassador Rahm Emanuel
Former congressman, White House Chief of Staff, two-term mayor of Chicago, and ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel has said he is exploring a possible campaign for president. He is well known for his blunt, take-no-prisoners approach and, at times, coarse language. But, his feelings, and those of his supporters, are that this is the kind of approach a Democratic candidate might need to take on the MAGA culture. Emanuel recognizes he faces challenges; he alienated the teachers’ union during his time as mayor, he has been out of Democratic politics for a number of years, and he is Jewish, an important Democratic constituency, but the party has never nominated anyone Jewish for president.

Senator Ruben Gallego (Arizona)
A former Marine and member of Congress (for five terms), Senator Gallego was elected to the Senate in 2024. Gallego has not yet said that he will pursue a presidential campaign, but he is making speeches outside of Arizona and hinting heavily. His base would presumably be the growing number of Latino voters in the party.

Senator Mark Kelly (Arizona)
The other senator from Arizona was a finalist for vice presidential nominee on Kamala Harris' ticket, and he has expressed some interest in exploring a run for the presidential nomination. Before getting elected to the Senate, Kelly served as a US Navy fighter pilot and a space station astronaut. He is also married to former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, who was nearly assassinated by a shooter several years ago, which led Kelly to start a nationwide gun control organization.

Senator Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota)
Currently serving her fourth term as a US Senator, Amy Klobuchar ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020 and was one of the last Democrats standing before conceding to Joe Biden. So, Klobuchar knows the challenges of a presidential campaign, but she may prefer to pursue higher leadership positions in the Senate. She would be a strong candidate to succeed Richard Durbin as a Democratic whip. If successful, she would presumably succeed Chuck Schumer as the Democratic leader whenever he retires or steps down. That might be more tempting than another arduous presidential campaign.

Governor Wes Moore (Maryland)
Governor Moore is still in his first term as governor of Maryland, but he has already attracted a great deal of interest as a potential candidate for 2028. He is a charismatic speaker with a glittering resume. An African American raised by a single mother, Moore had a bit of a troubled youth, but that turned around at Johns Hopkins, where he played on the football team, graduated Phi Beta Kappa, and ultimately was selected as a Rhodes Scholar. After earning a master’s degree from Oxford, Wes Moore volunteered for military combat service in Afghanistan, where he received a Bronze Star. Following his military duty, Moore became a White House Fellow, an investment banker in New York, and then spent nearly four years as CEO of the anti-poverty-focused Robin Hood Foundation in New York. Moore has said that he is committed to running for re-election as governor in 2026 and has repeatedly said he is not running for president (despite the urging of many inside and outside of his party).

Senator Chris Murphy (Connecticut)
While he has not commented publicly on his interest in running for president, he seems interested in exploring whether there is any support for his possible candidacy. He has been a leading Democrat in the Senate on foreign policy matters and has become one of President Trump's most vocal critics within the Democratic Party, both on TV and social media.

Governor Gavin Newsom (California)
He will have completed his second term as governor of California by 2028 and seems quite eager to run for president. He is clearly an attractive, well-spoken, charismatic political leader with a willingness to challenge his opponents. And he certainly has a strong fundraising base in California, although that base would no doubt be reduced if former Vice President Harris were also to run. California could also be his biggest problem, as across much of the country, California is seen as too liberal, too expensive, too woke, and too out of touch with the rest of the United States. That may be truer indeed for San Francisco, where Newsom previously served as mayor. Newsom would need to overcome those perceptions of San Francisco and California in some other parts of the country.

Governor J.B. Pritzker (Illinois)
With his recent speech in New Hampshire criticizing Democrats for not developing effective means and messages to counter Trump in 2024, the two-term, popular Illinois governor and scion of one of the country’s wealthiest families, Pritzker is considering a presidential run. And he would not have to spend much time raising money. Whether a very wealthy Democrat can rally the cross section of interest groups and other party leaders is unclear at this stage. Not since John Kennedy in 1960 have the Democrats nominated such a wealthy person as their presidential nominee. Pritzker is going to run for a third term as governor in 2026, but he has not precluded running in the 2028 presidential election.

Fmr. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo
Gina Raimondo served as commerce secretary during the Biden Administration and was widely praised by members of Congress and business leaders for her skill, judgment, and advocacy for American businesses both domestically and abroad. For instance, she was deeply involved in helping to develop and implement the CHIPS Act. Raimondo also has a stellar, world-class resume. She is the daughter of a blue-collar family in Rhode Island, was a top student at Harvard, a Rhodes Scholar, a Yale Law School graduate, and served as state treasurer and two-term governor of Rhode Island.

Whether former Secretary Raimondo wants to put herself through a two-year campaign to get the nomination is not clear at this point. She is currently working on a book, serving as a Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and no doubt reviewing a great many opportunities presented to her by the business community.

Governor Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania)
The very popular governor of Pennsylvania was apparently a close second when Kamala Harris was selecting a vice president nominee. But instead, she chose Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota. As a result, Shapiro does not carry the baggage of having lost a national campaign, and he presumably would have no reluctance to compete against Harris for the nomination.

Shapiro’s strengths include the large fundraising base in Pennsylvania, and his considerable popularity in that state. But his immediate focus presumably would be to get re-elected in 2026, and to do so without precluding a presidential campaign so soon after re-election (similar to the situation with Governor Wes Moore in Maryland).

Like former Ambassador Rahm Emanuel, he would face the question of whether someone Jewish can be nominated and elected.

Governor Tim Walz (Minnesota)
The vice-presidential nominee on Harris’ ticket in 2024, and still-Governor of Minnesota, has recently said he would be open to seeking the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028. During the 2024 campaign, he was not seen as having added very much to Harris’ campaign, and being perceived as another “old white guy” may not attract many Democratic primary votes. But longer shots have been nominated before.

Governor Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan)
The governor of Michigan has been highly popular in her state. In her first term, Governor Whitmer sparred with President Trump over COVID matters, and he was critical of her on a number of other issues as well, but recently Governor Whitmer visited President Trump in the Oval Office and met with him during his visit to a Michigan Air Force base. On both occasions, she made favorable comments about some of Trump's actions, which helped Michigan. Her decision to do so spurred criticism from some of her supporters and allies, but that should not keep her from running if she otherwise wants to put herself through the effort to secure the Democratic presidential nomination. Governor Whitmer will finish her second term as Governor in 2026 and will then have the time to explore a campaign based on her Michigan record and skill set.

It had been reported that when President Biden decided not to run for re-election in 2024, the Democratic candidate that President Trump thought would be his strongest opponent was Governor Whitmer.

To conclude, predicting the next president at this early stage is not realistic, but there will not be a lack of people putting themselves or others up for consideration. And if history is a guide, there is a reasonable chance that the next president may not be someone mentioned above.